The stability of international markets is a house of cards; in recent years, we’ve learned that a single gust of wind in the wrong place can make the entire structure tremble. Today, that wind is blowing hard in the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the vital arteries of world trade, is at the center of a crisis that goes far beyond energy. If you think the conflict in Iran only concerns the price of gasoline, you are mistaken. For us at FOODMAKERS, and for all Made in Italy companies, the stakes are the survival of our exports in an area worth billions of euros.
We took a deep dive into the subject with a true industry expert: Ermanno Giamberini, CEO of Contra Group. Together, we analyzed the domino effect hitting supply chains and what Italian companies bringing our gastronomic excellence to the world should expect.
The Domino Effect in Global Logistics Chains
This is not the first time we have faced a transport paralysis. From the pandemic to the Ever Given’s blockage of the Suez Canal, to the recent threats from Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, recent history teaches us that everything is connected. Ermanno Giamberini emphasizes how every critical event generates an immediate impact that extends far beyond the specific conflict zone.
30% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production passes through the Persian Gulf. But energy isn’t the only problem. Currently, hundreds of tankers and container ships are trapped inside the Gulf. Although OPEC has announced a production increase to mitigate damage, energy prices have already risen by 40%. This increase reflects directly on the production and transport costs of every single pack of pasta or bottle of wine leaving Italy.
Direct and Indirect Consequences of the Hormuz Blockade
| Type of Impact | Event Description | Effect on the Food Sector |
|---|---|---|
| Direct | Blockade of 30% of global crude and LNG. | Surge in production energy costs. |
| Indirect | Hundreds of container ships “trapped.” | Shortage of raw materials and delivery delays. |
| Logistical | Reduced availability of ships on the market. | Vertical increase in ocean freight rates. |
| Insurance | Increase in “War Risk” premiums. | Further burden on fixed shipping costs. |
The Risk for Non-Energy Goods
While the news focuses on oil, Giamberini invites us to look at what is happening inside the containers. There are ships loaded with various goods stuck at the “gates” of the Gulf. When the supply of ships decreases because many are blocked, freight rates (the cost of renting space on a ship) skyrocket.
Furthermore, cargo destined for the Gulf that cannot enter is being offloaded at alternative ports not equipped to handle such volumes. This creates unprecedented congestion, “biblical” delays, and, unfortunately, the risk that perishable Italian agri-food products suffer quality damage.
Raw Materials and Freight: How Much Will This Crisis Cost Us?
It is difficult to provide precise figures at this stage, but the trend is clear. Giamberini explains that we are facing a perfect storm. Maritime transport costs are being pushed upward by four main factors:
- Decreased vessel capacity (less space on ships).
- Increased fuel costs (the notorious “bunker”).
- Rise in war risk insurance premiums.
- Forced modification of global routes.
For a year now, many ships on the Europe-Asia route have been avoiding Suez to circumnavigate Africa due to Houthi attacks. Adding the Hormuz blockade to this scenario means extending sailing times by weeks, skyrocketing costs that will inevitably fall on the final consumer or the producers’ margins.
Italian Exports in the Gulf: A 13 Billion Market at Risk
The Gulf area is not a marginal market for Italy. In 2024, our exports to this region reached a value of approximately €13.3 billion, a growth of 14% compared to the previous year. It is a market hungry for Italian quality, which now risks a forced fast.
Currently, many maritime carriers are not accepting new cargo for Gulf ports. We are in a standstill phase that we all hope will be brief, but one that forces companies to rethink their strategy. As the CEO of Contra Group points out, standing by and watching is not an option.
Survival Strategies for Italian Companies
What should a company exporting food to the Gulf do? Wait for the storm to pass or seek alternative routes? Contra Group is already moving to organize the forwarding of goods through “safe” ports in the region, from which they can continue overland to their final destinations.
However, these solutions come at a price. Intermodal transport (sea + land) in crisis zones is complex and expensive. Companies must be ready to revise their price lists or manage logistics with extreme flexibility. There are currently no simple or cheap solutions, only the need to protect commercial relationships built over years of work.
Takeaways for Food Professionals
- Monitor costs: Do not underestimate the impact of “war risk” on your transport insurance.
- Diversify ports: Evaluate alternative overland routes from neighboring ports with your freight forwarder.
- Communicate with customers: Keep your partners in the Gulf informed about delays; transparency saves business relationships.
- Stock planning: If you import raw materials from that area, increase stock levels to avoid production shutdowns.
The Hormuz crisis is yet another test of resilience for the Italian food sector. Thanks to the vision of experts like Ermanno Giamberini, it is possible to navigate these troubled waters with greater awareness.